As we move toward the end of the year 2024, it has become increasingly clear that we are entering a period that will be highly consequential for relations between America and Ireland.

We know that significant change is imminent in the U.S. Government in Washington DC that could fundamentally reshape the contours of the economic relationship between America and Ireland.

Following the Republican Party’s success in this month’s November 5 General Election, we can expect that the Trump Administration, empowered by its newly-won control of both the United States Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, will likely (among other things) follow through on campaign promises to legislate for cuts to the rate of Corporation Profits Tax from 22.5% to 15%.

This will have a negative effect on Ireland’s competitiveness as a location for American industrial investment – Ireland’s top rate is 12.5%. Of course, Ireland has always had to compete for mobile international industrial investment projects sponsored by American businesses and corporations. So, we believe that a lower Corporation Profits Tax in America will sharpen that calculus considerably.

Ireland has always had to compete for its growth and success. One hundred years ago Ireland was the poorest country in Europe. Today it is the wealthiest (exclude, please, the city-state of Luxembourg). On trade matters, Ireland is in a very strong position in its bilateral trade with America.

For example, Ireland is one of America’s best aerospace customers. You will arrive at one tidy number when you add together the value of the order books for U.S.-made aircraft, jet engines and aerospace technology products bought by Ireland’s aviation leasing industry. And, don’t forget Ryanair, the world’s largest airline (by destinations served) which flies exclusively Boeing equipment and is one of the Seattle company’s best customers.

On the brighter side, the stock market has been viewing positively the run-up to this recent election season. If you take stock valuations as a barometer of future economic performance, the market has been signaling good days ahead. It does appear that investors have been convinced that the United States will continue to thrive. The investment community has remained bullish on America’s future prospects, regardless of the various possible permutations of outcomes before the General Election.

On trade, the Trump Administration when it takes office in January, will start shaping a new system of trade tariffs that may impact trade between Ireland and America. However, when drilling down into the granular detail of the products that principally characterize the America-Ireland bilateral trade relationship, we expect few significant impacts if such tariffs do materialize.

Final point: President Donald Trump may be deeply unpopular as a political figure with many people in Ireland. However, he is the only President of the United States to have invested capital and built a business in Ireland.

Adding to the feeling of change permeating the air, in Ireland there will be a General Election certainly before yearend – most probably in the last few days of November. Preparations for an election have been ramping up among Ireland’s political parties. Ireland’s Prime Minister, Taoiseach Simon Harris has confirmed publicly that he expects to call an election in 2024. Under the Irish Constitution, it is the Taoiseach’s Constitutional privilege to decide when an election is held. However, a fresh election in Ireland must be called before the end of March 2025 when the current Dáil term expires.

We do not yet know the results of that election in Ireland. However, as the country prepares for this national vote, some clear trends may be confirmed when all the votes are counted. It is likely, given the mood described consistently in public opinion polls, that both the Green Party and Sinn Féin will fare poorly. If that outcome is confirmed then the shape of any new Government, likely to be a coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with probably a good sprinkling of “Independents” will offer slightly more pro-business policies.

Government spending in Ireland as a share of GDP has always been too high in our opinion. Perhaps a little more reliance on the private sector will offer Ireland a chance to better grow the economy than the tired old Keynesian thinking that has too often characterized Government domestic economic management in Ireland.

When you tell your best customers to drop dead, we suspect nothing good can happen. Yet, that is the functional corollary of Ireland’s recent interactions with two of the Emerald Isle’s top business clients - Apple Computer and Google. Both companies, which both have substantial and powerful presence in Ireland, had been planning to augment their investments by adding cloud server facilities in Ireland. But guess what? They have been refused permission.

Why? These server farms that power the internet cloud are powerhungry and require lots of electricity. Sorry, Ireland’s electric grid cannot handle it, they were told.

From this vantage point in America, we are rubbing our eyes in disbelief at the weak and unwise handling of big-picture issues of construction, planning and infrastructure. There is no shortage of capital in Ireland to build homes, apartment buildings and other necessary built infrastructure. There is, however, a sorry shortage of intelligent management of the planning process.

Indeed, in its most recent report to the Irish Government, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council said that Ireland’s infrastructure was obviously underdeveloped in four key areas: housing, health, transport, and electricity. And the report added bluntly that “the planning and objection system has made it harder to deliver infrastructure projects and has increased their costs”.

Even if the incoming Irish Government took measures to reform the planning process, the financial watchdog said, it will prove challenging to deliver the sort of infrastructural upgrades the country badly needs: “Many of the projects rely on construction workers, who are already scarce in Ireland. We estimate that employment in construction would have to increase by almost 80,000 to address these infrastructure challenges.”

It is time to realize that An Bórd Pleanála has been a hopeless mistake in trying to fix this matter. People need homes to live in. This planning bottleneck explains much of why there are so many young people in Ireland who cannot get a home to buy. Lack of new supply causes shortages that jack up prices beyond what is affordable.

If businesses hire employees who cannot find a place to live, it is not difficult to figure out what will happen to future business investment. Apple Computer has already hired over 300 people outside Copenhagen in Denmark to staff the cloud server facility that the company tried to locate in Athenry, County Galway. And why was Apple forced into this decision last year? Because some retired British holiday-home owners in Cork were allowed, under Ireland’s planning laws, to object to the development. This is no way to run a railroad.

Urgent attention must be devoted to this matter. This represents a clear and present danger to future prosperity in Ireland. Whatever new Government comes to power in Dublin later this year needs to prioritize this.

Let’s stick with the issue of planning for another moment here. Sometimes, a close read of the background to these appalling planning screw-ups can beggar belief. The Dublin Airport Passenger Cap is one such example. When previous expansion of the airport was being undertaken the local planning authority - which is located in what was once a sleepy fishing village far from the center of the action, approved the airport’s development plan. However, way back then in the misty past, these planning wizards feared that as the airport’s operations grew, local roads leading into the airport would become congested. Of course, nothing of the sort has happened. As regular users of Dublin Airport will attest, fast and easy road access to the airport is never an issue these days, even during the busiest peak rush-hours.

Sadly, this matters little to the small-town bureaucrats who control planning for Ireland’s largest airport. This has now become a hot-potato topic and it need not be. Ireland’s central Government needs to assert some adult supervision in matters such as this. They can make or amend laws that will remedy serious problems such as this one.

Dublin Airport must be allowed to expand and grow as aggressively as needs dictate. It is one part of the national infrastructure in Ireland that must carry a brand of excellence at all levels of operation, from technological superiority of air traffic control systems to mundane matters such as baggage handling and check-in procedures.

We have been keeping an eye on this long-running saga for quite a few years. Back in 2016, the European Commission, anxious as always to expand its power, ordered Apple to pay Ireland $14 billion in unpaid back taxes.

Ireland’s Government disagreed, and insisted that Apple did not owe a penny – the company has paid all its taxes owing up-to-date.

Ireland emphasized that the company was in full compliance with both the letter and the spirit of its legal agreement on taxes. At the heart of Ireland’s position is its long-standing policy and low tax on corporation profits. The Irish government joined Apple in putting up a legal fight on the issue – even spending over $10 million in taxpayer funds to fight its case.

Eventually, this year, the Strasbourg-based European Court of Justice, which had taken an extraordinary length of time, measurable in years rather than weeks, to consider the matter, issued a ruling. It claims that Apple owes the money – all $14 billion of it.

The Irish government now says it accepts this ruling and will take $14 billion as tax revenue and treat the funds accordingly. The government’s alacrity in caving in to the ruling is seen by some as not coincidental to the fact that there is a General Election to be won.



Here is our view. This episode can be seen as part of a long campaign by the European Union to undermine Ireland’s independence on tax matters, and, more generally, to push for a federal Europe - without, of course, ever putting such a proposal to the test of a democratic vote.

Even if the Irish government must accept the court ruling, it should use the opportunity to send a clear message to the European Commission. Instead of eagerly grabbing Apple’s money as general taxation, the government should ring-fence the cash and announce that it will be used exclusively to build infrastructure to support Apple and other multinationals to expand and make more efficient their operations in Ireland. The additional water and power plants, modular housing for workers, and 7-day-a week Planning Court to fast-track projects would indeed benefit Apple and other businesses. It would also improve Ireland’s attractiveness as a location for future foreign direct investment, to the benefit of all.

To power future development, Ireland needs a more robust electricity generating system and distribution network. Work has been ongoing, too slowly for many people’s liking, to build out the overland interconnector with Northern Ireland’s electric grid system.

Plans are also afoot to link into France’s electricity supply network (which is generated mostly by nuclear power) via undersea transmission cables. It is reassuring to see these plans being worked on. Let’s hope these are successful. The alternative is that brownouts and blackouts may well be in the cards. Which would not be good.

This year, we again repeat what we have been saying in previous annual reports that a bilateral, reciprocal deal on migration between Ireland and the United States must be possible. A special one-of—a-kind, sweetheart deal that would allow several thousand Americans to live and work in Ireland with a similar accommodation for people from Ireland to get green cards (work permits) to live and work in America.

Politicians in Ireland would need a stiff spine to counter the pushback from the Brussels bureaucracy. Failure here will lead to an inevitable weakening over time of the heritage connections between our two countries. No better time than now, when immigration is a hot topic in Washington DC, to table an idea like this. As is clear, right now immigration flows of any size in any direction between Ireland and the United States are purely a thing of the past.

Transatlantic tourism has always been an important ingredient in the success of Ireland’s hospitality industry. This past year visitor numbers from the United States into Ireland continued the recovery from pandemic downturn. This year over two million Americans will have visited the Emerald Isle for vacation, bringing important foreign exchange earnings into Ireland’s economy. Airline seat capacity across the North Atlantic continues to be dynamic with the number of non-stop direct flight gateways increasing each year. Aer Lingus, the dominant carrier into Ireland across the ocean, has announced several such new flight services this year, from cities like Nashville, Minneapolis and Cleveland. Other U.S. carriers serving Ireland from various U.S. destinations include American Airlines, JetBlue Airways and United Air Lines. The early outlook for next year is also highly-positive.

One issue that has relevance for Ireland’s tourism industry, among many other public policy ideas, is that Ireland has always considered itself a refuge for desperate people seeking to flee from persecution and political violence. Since, the start of the lawless Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ireland has hosted some 110,000 refugees from that war-ravaged zone.

This has been done at considerable cost with as many as 40% of the inventory of Ireland’s hotel rooms devoted to housing these unfortunate people. Latest fi gures indicate that this percentage has been gradually declining. However, it is clear that if there are not enough hotel rooms for business visitors to Ireland or, more importantly, intending vacationers, especially high-yield visitors from America, then Ireland’s overall economy will be negatively aff ected. Lack of hotel room availability will cause prices to rise and will eventually push this business to other more competitively priced European destinations.

Businesses, especially large international corporations, get the best outcomes for everyone when they can plan and make long-term investment decisions in a stable economic environment. Business leaders understand that changing demographics in Northern Ireland, as well as the ongoing fall-out from Brexit, have increased signifi cantly the likelihood of some form of Irish re-unification in the next 10 to 20 years.

Many are including this possibility in their strategy, and some are listing this possibility on their corporate risk register. This means that the time to begin detailed scenario planning, especially in the area of business, is now. Companies need to know that if and when constitutional change comes, there is a plan for their industry and for the economy of the island as a whole.

We believe the future of Ireland is too important for any one political party or ideology to dominate the discussions. That is why the Ireland-U.S. Council Foundation has initiated the Blueprint Ireland project. Blueprint Ireland will carry out independent, non-partisan research across a range of business sectors, from trade and industrial policy, to fi ntech, energy, transport, healthcare and communications. It will measure, cost and compare options for a future Ireland, with a focus on maximizing the opportunities that could emerge from any future change on the island.

Our aim is to provide for Irish Americans and all friends of Ireland an opportunity to contribute in a thoughtful and nonpartisan way to the discussion on the future of the island of Ireland. I encourage all members of the Council to consider helping to get the Blueprint Ireland initiative up and running in 2025. If they wish, they can do so through the Ireland-U.S. Council Foundation, which is a 501(c)3 organization.

We welcome new members in our Ireland-U.S. Council family for our mission and activities on both sides of the Atlantic. As a membership organization, we are always eager to greet new members. We ask our existing members to assist in putting out this good word. Our Council mission is an attractive one. As economic relations grow and prosper between Ireland, north and south, and the United States, so too will the economic prosperity of the people on both sides of the Atlantic.

The business conditions in Ireland and in the United States and between our two countries have clearly continued to improve following the challenges presented by Covid in 2020 through 2022. We believe that the outlook for the future is filled with great promise. The mission of the Ireland-U.S. Council is to enhance the business bonds and commercial connections between the United States and Ireland. Our activities and our efforts are always aimed at ensuring that these continue to flourish.

We thank all our members, supporters, sponsors, and friends in the United States and in Ireland for their participation and support of our programs and activities in the past twelve months. As we move into the challenging space that the new year brings, we hope that you will sustain your commitment to this tradition.

Beir Bua agus Beannacht

Tom Higgins

Executive Vice President FiServ, Inc. &

Council President

November 14, 2024